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State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490

Sebastian Raschka, Nathan Lambert · 《Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch)》作者 + AI2 研究员 / RLHF 书作者

Lex Fridman 请来两位"一线做过模型、也写过书"的研究者做 2026 年初的 AI state-of-the-art 盘点: Sebastian Raschka 从 GPT-2 一路手撕到 Qwen3 / Gemma 3, 最擅长从架构里读故事;Nathan Lambert 是 AI2 研究员、RLHF 书作者、atom 项目发起人,frontier 与 open-source 两边都站过。两人聊了 DeepSeek 时刻、Opus 4.5 神话、RLVR 的"假 aha"、scaling 的三个轴、AI 2027 的时间线推后、Anthropic $1.5B 和解、CUDA 的真护城河、atom project,一直到 100 年后世界的样子。

#ai-research #coding-agents #hardware #chips

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Jensen Huang: NVIDIA — The $4 Trillion Company & the Future of AI

Lex Fridman Podcast

~2h

Jensen Huang: NVIDIA — The $4 Trillion Company & the Future of AI

Jensen Huang · NVIDIA CEO

Jensen Huang 把 NVIDIA 的打法讲成一条推理链：从 extreme co-design 到四条 scaling law，从 CUDA 在 GeForce 上的存在主义赌博到 agentic 时代的 "iPhone of tokens"。他也谈到 TSMC、中国、供应链、能源瓶颈，以及"intelligence is a commodity"的人生哲学。

#hardware #chips #ai-products #interview

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AI is critical for humanity's survival: Cisco President on the AI revolution | Jeetu Patel

Lenny's Podcast

~45 min

AI is critical for humanity's survival: Cisco President on the AI revolution | Jeetu Patel

Jeetu Patel · Cisco CPO & President

Cisco CPO/President Jeetu Patel discusses why AI is essential for humanity's survival given declining birth rates, how Cisco connects GPU clusters across data centers as critical AI infrastructure, and shares his six-part framework for building great companies.

#ai-products #hardware #product-management #interview

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Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space"

Dwarkesh Podcast

~3h

Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space"

Elon Musk · CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, xAI

Elon Musk 与 Dwarkesh Patel 长达 3 小时的深度对谈，涵盖太空 AI 数据中心（36 个月内最经济）、 Starship 每小时一次发射、月球质量驱动器、Terafab 自建芯片厂、Optimus 机器人的递归指数增长、中美制造业竞争，以及 xAI "understand the universe" 使命与 AI 安全。

#hardware #chips #robotics #ai-research

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The real AI revolution isn't software. It's farms, mines, and trucks. | Qasar Younis

Lenny's Podcast

~60 min

The real AI revolution isn't software. It's farms, mines, and trucks. | Qasar Younis

Qasar Younis · Applied Intuition CEO

Applied Intuition CEO Qasar Younis 首次公开访谈。他认为 AI 真正的影响不在软件开发，而在农业、矿业、建筑和卡车运输等物理行业。对谈涵盖 Physical AI 路线、中国竞争的误读、创始人的沉默哲学、以及一家近十年未花过融资的 $15B 公司如何运营。

#ai-products #robotics #startup #hardware

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Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute

Dwarkesh Podcast

~90 min

Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute

Dylan Patel · CEO, SemiAnalysis

SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel walks through the entire AI compute supply chain, from $600B hyperscaler capex to the 3.5 EUV tools needed per gigawatt. He explains why semiconductors — not power — are the real bottleneck, and what that means for the US-China AI race, memory prices, and consumer electronics.

#hardware #chips #deep-dive #technical

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